Need some advice on a buy

[Hamamatsu Nippon]

Clofan, I'm going to give you a different opinion from what you have heard so far. I believe $1200 is fair market value for the bike you're looking at. If $3,500 to $4,000 is indeed the value of a really nicely restored Dream, then paying $1200 or 30% seems about right. Especially since this bike runs well and has some recent mechanical repairs as well as brand new wear items like tires, battery, chain, cables, and brakes. All that new stuff has some value, and it is money that you won't have to spend on parts that are always required on a new project.
Others have posted stories on really good deals, rather fantastic deals. They were lucky, I never find deals like that, and I have been looking around a long time, so those comparisons are rather unfair. They are however nice to hear about though, and give me hope.
One other point to consider is location. There actually is no average price for any old motorcycle. An old bike for sale in a remote rural setting cannot be compared to valuations in shall we say metropolitan Los Angeles. Another point being economically depressed areas such as Flint, Michigan yield cheaper prices as Tango911 discovered.
I live in Ontario and vintage bike prices are a bit higher and deals tougher to come by compared to my Michigan friends.
Saying that, would I buy the 1963 Dream you are considering from your local guy for $1200? If it was in my neighborhood then absolutely I would. I would travel a few hours to get that deal as well.

[Cheburashka]

I paid $1200 for my '65. The paint wasn't as bad as on the one you're looking at, and it came with a set of Buco Twinmaster bags. It did have the same crumpled front fender and tarnished cases. It's hard to know what you're getting with a bike that old. With mine, it turned out that I didn't have the proper mounts for the bags, so lots of scrounging was necessary. Add the air filter, tires, battery etc. and mine ended up costing closer to $1600.

If you really want a Dream and you want to really make it yours through restoration, that one's a good candidate. If you're looking for a clean version to put on display, you'll need to keep looking.